Professor proffers Olympic predictions

Any Canadians expecting the gold medal dominance of their Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics team to translate into improvement for the London 2012 Summer Olympics team will be disappointed if predictions released March 12 come true.

Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan-native Daniel Johnson, an economics professor at Colorado College in Colorado Springs, Colo., predicts Canada will win 17 medals, including four gold, in London. That was also his prediction for Beijing 2008. The actual tally four year ago was 18 medals and three gold. Not too shabby, eh?

Well, maybe if you're the Canadian Olympic team. That would put Canada in 15th on the gold medal scale and 12th overall. On overall medals, Johnson predicts Canada will be surpassed by Netherlands and Hungary (19), Italy and Japan (31), Australia (38). On the gold medal scale, he believes India, Poland and Netherlands will win 5. Romania (6), Hungary (7) and Australia (8), he predicts, will also beat Canada.

Johnson boasts a remarkable 93 percent success rate in his Olympic predictions over six consecutive Games, and his model does not include athletics. He instead relies on a nation's per capita income, population and its proximity to the host city.

Johnson predicts the U.S. will win the most overall (99) and most gold (34). China (67 including 33 gold), Russia (82 including 25 gold), and host Great Britain (45 including 20 gold) are the top four. According to Johnson's March 12-issued news release:

"During the last Summer Games, in Beijing in 2008, Johnson’s model forecast that the U.S. would top the medal count, and it did, winning 110 medals (seven more than predicted). He also correctly predicted that China would top the gold medal count, and it did, winning 51 gold medals (seven more than predicted). During the last Winter Games, in Vancouver in 2010, the model predicted 27 medals for Canada (they won 26 instead), but the American and German teams both vastly outperformed expectations and topped the podium more often."

What Johnson doesn't mention is that his prediction for Canada's gold medals in Vancouver 2010 was a paltry 5. Canada won a record 14.

Read more here and see the ranked prediction table below.

2012 Olympic medal predictions by Dan Johnson

Nov. 14: Expensive Stadium Day in Canada

What do B.C. Place Stadium in Vancouver, Rogers Centre in Toronto and the Olympic Stadium in Montreal have in common?

They are all expensive, taxpayer-funded stadiums that have hosted Grey Cups and Nov. 14 is a key date in their histories.

By the time its public debt was retired in 2006, Montreal's "Big Owe" cost $1.47 billion. The French-designed retractable roof never worked. The tower that was key to the design wasn't finished when the Summer Olympics opened July 17, 1976. The Quebec government finally gave up in 1987 and shut the lid. The Montreal Expos moved after the 2004 season to Washington, D.C. The Montreal Alouettes only venture indoors for playoff games and it's closed during winters for fear of the roof collapsing under snow.

On Nov. 14, 1975, the Quebec government seized control of the financing and construction of the Olympic Stadium and created the Regie des installations Olympique. Montreal's Olympics became synonymous with corruption and cost overruns. It's a big reason why the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics had lukewarm support from British Columbians (until Canada started winning gold medals in February 2010).

Because of the grand faux pas in Montreal, Vancouver's B.C. Place Stadium became Canada's first successful indoor stadium. It employed an air-supported fabric roof design. On Nov. 14, 1982, the fans were turned on as Premier Bill Bennett witnessed his "bubble" come to life. On March 8, 1983, Queen Elizabeth II invited the world to visit for Expo 86, but the $126 million building's official opening was June 19, 1983.

The roof was deflated on May 4, 2010 and a $458 million retractable system is under construction. A fall 2011 reopening is anticipated. The first and only event confirmed under "Campbell's Crown" is the Nov. 27, 2011 Grey Cup.

Toronto's SkyDome one-upped Vancouver with its $580 million, white, egg-shaped retractable roof beneath the landmark CN Tower that opened June 3, 1989. In 1985, Ontario Premier Bill Davis projected a $130 million cost.

On Nov. 14, 1991, Ontario's NDP government privatized the stadium in a deal with eight companies for $110 million cash and $270 million in debentures. Rogers Communications eventually paid the bargain basement price of $25 million in 2004 for the home of the Toronto Blue Jays.

The 1976 Olympics opened and closed at Olympic Stadium. B.C. Place was the Olympic stadium for the 2010 Games. Rogers Centre is where the 2015 Pan American Games will begin and end.