Professor proffers Olympic predictions

Any Canadians expecting the gold medal dominance of their Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics team to translate into improvement for the London 2012 Summer Olympics team will be disappointed if predictions released March 12 come true.

Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan-native Daniel Johnson, an economics professor at Colorado College in Colorado Springs, Colo., predicts Canada will win 17 medals, including four gold, in London. That was also his prediction for Beijing 2008. The actual tally four year ago was 18 medals and three gold. Not too shabby, eh?

Well, maybe if you're the Canadian Olympic team. That would put Canada in 15th on the gold medal scale and 12th overall. On overall medals, Johnson predicts Canada will be surpassed by Netherlands and Hungary (19), Italy and Japan (31), Australia (38). On the gold medal scale, he believes India, Poland and Netherlands will win 5. Romania (6), Hungary (7) and Australia (8), he predicts, will also beat Canada.

Johnson boasts a remarkable 93 percent success rate in his Olympic predictions over six consecutive Games, and his model does not include athletics. He instead relies on a nation's per capita income, population and its proximity to the host city.

Johnson predicts the U.S. will win the most overall (99) and most gold (34). China (67 including 33 gold), Russia (82 including 25 gold), and host Great Britain (45 including 20 gold) are the top four. According to Johnson's March 12-issued news release:

"During the last Summer Games, in Beijing in 2008, Johnson’s model forecast that the U.S. would top the medal count, and it did, winning 110 medals (seven more than predicted). He also correctly predicted that China would top the gold medal count, and it did, winning 51 gold medals (seven more than predicted). During the last Winter Games, in Vancouver in 2010, the model predicted 27 medals for Canada (they won 26 instead), but the American and German teams both vastly outperformed expectations and topped the podium more often."

What Johnson doesn't mention is that his prediction for Canada's gold medals in Vancouver 2010 was a paltry 5. Canada won a record 14.

Read more here and see the ranked prediction table below.

2012 Olympic medal predictions by Dan Johnson

2010 Games live forever at B.C. Sports Hall of Fame

The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics opened and closed at B.C. Place Stadium, and that’s where the tangible memories are now housed.

Almost two years after the Games, the B.C. Sports Hall of Fame and Museum doors reopen Jan. 6 at Gate A with its marquee Vancouver 2010 Gallery.

The 2,000 artifacts in the Olympic and Paralympic collection include gold, silver and bronze medals, mascots Miga, Quatchi and Sumi, a podium, torches, the late Jack Poole’s Olympic Order award, athlete uniforms and equipment and gifts brought by national Olympic committees. For Olympic pinheads, the Hall purports to have every single one of the keepsakes made for the 2010 Games.



The treasures were gathered via the tireless efforts of president Sue Griffin, curator Jason Beck, operations director Allison Mailer and trustee Joanie McMaster. Griffin reasonably feared before the Games that cash-strapped VANOC was going to put everything up for auction.

Much of the collection is organized in five display cases resembling each of the Olympic rings and representing the venues where the Games took place. You will find artifacts worn, used or signed by Canada's stars of the Games, like Alexandre Bilodeau, Joannie Rochette, Maelle Ricker, Jon Montgomery, Sidney Crosby and Hayley Wickenheiser. But there is a plethora of other nuggets that might surprise you.

There is a suit, helmet, goggles and practice snowboard that belonged to Johnny Lyall, who flew through the air on a ramp from level 4 and landed on the floor of B.C. Place to greet opening ceremony viewers from around the world. His script on a folded white piece of paper in large Helvetica type is included in the display case: "Welcome to the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Winter Games! Bienvenue!"



Nancy Greene-Raine’s torch relay uniform and the torch she used to light the ceremonial cauldron was autographed by Wayne Gretzky, Steve Nash, Catriona Le May Doan and Rick Hansen.

Two dozen of the 84 nations of the Games donated a set of ceremonial uniforms.

"Azerbaijan, they've got some good pants, just as good as the Norwegian curling crew,” said the hall’s operations director Allison Mailer during a preview tour.



Hockey superfan Dave Ash, who owns Regina-based Dash Tours, donated his white hockey helmet with the red siren light and his giant Canada flag that Corey Perry borrowed for Team Canada’s victory celebration. Ash paid $3,000 for his front-row seat to the Feb. 28, 2010 gold medal hockey game.

Pakistani alpine skier Muhammad Abbas, who was 79th in the giant slalom, donated the hand-carved, wood plank skis on which he learned as a child.

"Our wish list has been completed, we're just so thrilled,” Mailer said. “The only thing we really want is a Shaun White snowboard. I think we'll still work on it. Maybe we'll send him pictures of the gallery and tell him what's missing."



The provincial sports shrine also reopens with a redesigned Hall of Champions that features a touchscreen multimedia archive of all 325 individuals and 54 teams inducted since its 1966 establishment. Nearby is a display case that include mementoes of Vancouver visits by the 20th century’s greatest athletes -- a Santos jersey worn and signed by Pele and handwraps autographed by Muhammad Ali -- plus the puck used to score the Vancouver Canucks’ first National Hockey League goal and a stopwatch that timed the famed 1954 Miracle Mile between Roger Bannister and John Landy at Empire Stadium.

Elsewhere, the hall includes jerseys, trophies and gear spanning the histories of the B.C. Lions, Canucks, Vancouver Whitecaps and Vancouver Canadians, plus galleries devoted to Hansen, late race car driver Greg Moore and national hero Terry Fox.

The grand reopening is planned for Feb. 10, two days before the second anniversary of the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Canadian Olympic Committee: hacked?

On Aug. 3, I posed the question: was the Montreal-based World Anti-Doping Agency hacked during the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver? Here is the post.

That was the same day McAfee published its Revealed: Operation Shady RAT white paper showing numerous governments, corporations and non-profit agencies had been hacked, including the World Anti-Doping Agency, the International Olympic Committee and an unnamed "Olympic Committee of Western Country".

McAfee hasn't assigned blame, but the source of the hacker attacks is widely believed to be in China. The report is called Operation Shady RAT -- the Beijing Olympics happened during the Chinese zodiac's year of the rat -- and it included this veiled reference to the Middle Kingdom.

"The interest in the information held at the Asian and Western national Olympic Committees, as well as the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the World Anti-Doping Agency in the lead-up and immediate follow-up to the 2008 Olympics was particularly intriguing and potentially pointed a finger at a state actor behind the intrusions, because there is likely no commercial benefit to be earned from such hacks."

Two Canadian government agencies were hacked, one in October 2009 for six months, the other for one month in January 2010. On page 7 of the report, there is that reference to the unnamed "Olympic Committee of Western Country" being infiltrated in August 2007 for a seven-month period.

The victim appears to have been the Canadian Olympic Committee.

I asked spokesperson Riley Denver whether the COC was that mysterious "Olympic Committee of Western Country" and, if so, what was the nature of the attack and how did it impact operations?

The response from Denver? "The COC isn't going to comment on this issue."

On April 6, 2005, the Canadian Olympic Committee's executive director Chris Rudge was in Beijing and signed a "Sino-Canadian" memorandum of agreement with Chinese government and Olympic committee officials. You can still find that news release on the Chinese Olympic Committee website, but the parallel news release from the Canadian perspective no longer appears in the April 2005 section on the Canadian Olympic Committee website.

Draw your own conclusions.

I say, the Canadian Olympic Committee owes athletes, sponsors, media and sports fans in Canada an explanation.

Were its systems hacked and was any personal information stolen?

Offcial Website of the Chinese Olympic Committee

Canadian Olympic Committee - News April 2005

How many golden Canadian Olympians?

Seventy gold medals have been awarded to Canadians in Canada since 1993.

And you thought it was just 14 and the gold parade began only at Vancouver 2010!

Here is the full roster of all Canadians who have received a gold medal in the home and native land, in order of appearance.

Synchronized swimming
Sylvie Frechette, Dec. 15, 1993, Montreal Forum presented by Dick Pound. (Second gold medal awarded after judging error at Barcelona 1992).

Cross-country skiing
Beckie Scott, June 25, 2004, Vancouver Art Gallery presented by Charmaine Crooks. (Salt Lake 2002 gold and silver medallists disqualified for doping infractions).

Freestyle skiing moguls
Alexandre Bilodeau, Feb. 14, 2010

Snowboardcross
Maelle Ricker, Feb. 16, 2010

Speedskating 1,000 m
Christine Nesbitt, Feb. 18, 2010

Skeleton
Jon Montgomery, Feb. 19, 2010

Figure skating
mixed dance, Scott Moir and Tessa Virtue, Feb. 22, 2010

Skicross
Ashleigh McIvor, Feb. 23, 2010

Two-seat bobsled
Kaillie Humphries and Heather Moyse, Feb. 24, 2010

Women’s hockey
Meghan Agosta, Gillian Apps, Tessa Bonhomme, Jennifer Botterill, Becky Kellar, Jayna Hefford, Haley Irwin, Rebecca Johnston, Gina Kingsbury, Charline Labonte, Carla MacLeod, Meaghan Mikkelson, Caroline Ouellette, Cherie Piper, Marie-Philip Poulin, Colleen Sostorics, Kim St.-Pierre, Shannon Szabados, Sarah Vaillancourt, Catherine Ward, Hayley Wickenheiser.
Feb. 25, 2010

Short-track speedskating 500 m
Charles Hamelin, Feb. 26, 2010

Short-track speedskating 5,000 m relay
Guillaume Bastille, Charles Hamelin, Francois Hamelin, Olivier Jean, Francois-Louis Tremblay, Feb. 26, 2010

Parallel giant slalom snowboarding
Jasey-Jay Anderson, Feb. 27, 2010

Speedskating men’s team pursuit
Mathieu Giroux, Lucas Makowsky, Denny Morrison, Feb. 27, 2010

Men’s curling
Kevin Martin, Adam Enright, Ben Hebert, Marc Kennedy, John Morris, Feb. 27, 2010

Men’s hockey
Patrice Bergeron, Dan Boyle, Martin Brodeur, Sidney Crosby, Drew Doughty, Marc-André Fleury, Ryan Getzlaf, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Duncan Keith, Roberto Luongo, Patrick Marleau, Brenden Morrow, Rick Nash, Scott Niedermayer, Corey Perry, Christopher Pronger, Michael Richards, Brent Seabrook, Eric Staal, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Toews and Shea Weber, Feb. 28, 2010.

Olympics rife with professionals and prophylactics

CKNW’s Marcella Bernardo livened up an otherwise typical, mid-Games news conference with the Canadian Olympic Committee on Feb. 20 at the main press centre.

She asked Vancouver-born Marnie McBean, the triple gold medal rower from Barcelona 1992 and Atlanta 1996, about the free condoms available to athletes at the Olympic Villages.

As I said in June, not every athlete coming to the 2010 Winter Olympics will win one of the 549 gold, silver or bronze medals. But every one hoping to score can get a handful of latex.

"(Athletes are) just collecting free stuff,” said McBean, a Canadian Olympic team mentor. "I used to say it (the Olympic Games) was 16 days of free stuff. (Condoms are) out free everywhere. People just take them as a joke... People just take handfuls of them."

Some 50,000 of the rubbers are distributed freely as part of a United Nations/IOC AIDS/HIV prevention campaign.

Evidently they’re not just for athletes. On the Feb. 9 media tour, I wandered into the medical clinic at the Vancouver Olympic Village and the volunteers invited me to take a handful. Even after I took only one, they encouraged me to take more. I politely told the kind volunteers that the Games had yet to begin. Nudge-nudge, wink-wink.

McBean denied that the villages are a den of debauchery. They’re more a pressure-cooker environment, she said.

Former synchronized swimmer Sylvie Frechette, who is also working as an athlete mentor, revealed at the same news conference that Canada’s hockey team has a secret passion for ping pong.

"If you hear the ping-pong table at 9 am, it's Sidney Crosby and Shea Weber,” Frechette said.

After the shocking 5-3 Feb. 21 loss to the United States, I'm betting that coach Mike Babcock is ordering less table tennis.

You may recognize Frechette’s name. She was cheated out of a gold medal at Barcelona 1992 by a judging error, but on Dec. 15, 1993, she was awarded the medal in a ceremony at the Forum in Montreal by Canada’s senior International Olympic Committee member Dick Pound. Because of that, she was the first Canadian awarded a gold medal in Canada.

Cross-country skier Beckie Scott was the second on June 25, 2004 in Vancouver after the IOC revoked gold and silver from Russian doping cheats at Salt Lake 2002. IOC member Charmaine Crooks bestowed the medal on Scott at a Vancouver Art Gallery ceremony.

Of course, Alexandre Bilodeau was the first Canadian to win a gold medal in Canada on Feb. 14, 2010.

Frechette was inducted to the Canadian Sport Hall of Fame in 1999.